The study compares three alternative development pathways against current policies using macroeconomic modelling by Cambridge Econometrics. These include an electrification-led pathway, a mixed-technologies pathway, and a fossil fuel-led alternative.
The electrification-led pathway delivers the highest GDP growth while supporting sustained investment in domestic infrastructure and clean technologies. It also creates around 250,000 more jobs in sectors including construction, manufacturing and services.
By contrast, the fossil fuel-led pathway delivers only short-term gains, with economic performance weakening over time as domestic resources decline and exposure to global markets persists.
However, the study also identified key barriers that must be overcome for the UK to electrify, such as skills shortages and policy uncertainty that erodes confidence and delays investment decisions.
Accelerating electrification will also require substantial investment in electricity networks, storage and system flexibility to connect new generation capacity and meet rising demand, while current electricity pricing structures further discourage electrification.
Overcoming these barriers will not only boost growth and create jobs, but also Improve the UK’s energy security by reducing dependence on imported oil and gas and lowering exposure to volatile global markets and price shocks, the study claims.
“The UK has a choice of energy futures, and this analysis sets out the clear numbers,” said Eliot Whittington, chief systems change officer at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), which published the research yesterday.
“A clean power-based energy system is cheaper overall, better for the economy, better for jobs, better for energy security, and better for the climate.”
The researchers have made a series of recommendations to the UK government, including:
Whittington added: “There are real discussions to be had about how best to implement the change, but clean electrification is good for Britain, and we should work out how we best move to a clean-power future.”
Image credit: Shutterstock
Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
