In a new report launched at COP30, the agency explains how a spike in cooling demand will be driven by increases in population and wealth, more extreme heat events, and low-income households increasingly gaining access to more polluting and inefficient systems.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, this would almost double cooling-related emissions by 2050 when compared to 2022 levels – despite efforts to improve energy efficiency and phase down climate-warming refrigerants, which could overwhelm power grids during peak loads.
However, the report claims that sustainable cooling solutions could slash 64% off emissions by midway of this century, protect three billion people from rising heat, and save up to $43trn (£33trn) in avoided electricity and infrastructure costs.
These include passive cooling strategies – such as shading and natural ventilation – as well as low-energy and hybrid systems that combine fans and air conditioners, and rapid adoption of high-efficiency equipment.
When combined with rapid decarbonisation of the global power sector, the report states that residual cooling emissions could fall to 97% below business-as-usual levels.
“As deadly heat waves become more regular and extreme, access to cooling must be treated as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy and sanitation,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen. “But we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis, which would drive greenhouse gas emissions higher and raise costs.
“Passive, energy efficient and nature-based solutions can help meet our growing cooling needs and keep people, food-chains and economies safe from heat as we pursue global climate goals.”
Nearly two-thirds of the emissions cuts available come from passive and low-energy solutions, according to the report, reinforcing the urgency of embedding them in national policies and urban planning.
A total of 72 nations have joined a Global Cooling Pledge to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68% by 2050, and 134 countries have incorporated cooling into their nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans, long-term low emission development strategies, energy plans, or other national climate strategies.
However, only 54 have comprehensive policies for passive cooling in building energy codes, minimum energy performance standards, and refrigerant transition, with the largest gaps in African and Asia-Pacific countries, where much of the global rise in cooling demand is expected.
If all the report’s recommendations are adopted, the researchers say they could save $17trn in cumulative energy costs through to 2050, and avoid up to $26trn in grid investment through reduced electricity demand.
“For Somalian cities like Dolow, Biadoa, Galkaio and Bossaso, sustainable cooling is not a luxury – it is a lifeline," said the country's minister of environment and climate change, Bashir Mohamed Jama. “Together with other cities, we can turn passive cooling and innovation into resilience for the most vulnerable urban communities.”
Image credit: Shutterstock
Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
