That is according to a report by the non-profit Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC), which suggests that 96% of vehicles manufactured in the UK will be battery EVs in 10 years, compared with 57% in the rest of Europe and 38% worldwide.
However, the authors also highlight how “global uncertainty in geopolitics, markets, and supply chains” is causing instability in automotive manufacturing sectors worldwide.
Overall, the UK is forecast to be manufacturing a million battery EVs by 2035, however, given the geopolitical instability, this number may reduce by 150,000.
There is also an expectation that battery demand will slow around 2027, driven by the increased popularity of hybrid vehicles, which use smaller batteries and are set to account for a greater percentage of electrified vehicles than in earlier forecasts.
“The transition is happening, and we are seeing demand for automotive batteries increasing steadily in all regions over the next 15 years, but perhaps not at the early pace we initially forecast,” said Julian Hetherington, automotive transformation director at the APC.
“Hybrid production will take up a larger market share which indicates there is an increased focus on transitionary technologies to enable the shift towards electrified mobility.”
The report focuses on both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles with the aim of forecasting battery and component demand globally, in Europe, and the UK.
It comes after the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revealed that one in four cars sold worldwide this year are set to be EVs, with this likely to rise to two in five by 2030.
The agency forecasts 20 million electric cars to be sold in 2025 – up from 17 million in 2024 – with sales already increasing by 35% year-on-year in the first quarter to break records in all major markets.
China maintains its position as the market leader, accounting for more than 70% of global production, with the 11 million electric cars sold in the country last year equivalent to the total worldwide in 2022.
“Our data shows that, despite significant uncertainties, electric cars remain on a strong growth trajectory globally,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “Sales continue to set new records, with major implications for the international auto industry.”
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Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
