Drawing on insights from more than 1,300 experts worldwide, the report also ranks mis- and disinformation, and social polarisation in the top three most pressing risks for the next two years.
Environmental concerns dominate the risk outlook for the next decade, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss/ ecosystem collapse, and critical change to Earth systems the top three threats.
Responding to the findings, ISEP deputy CEO Martin Baxter explained how the environment and sustainability are key to the rising geopolitical tensions.
“Climate change is driving the melting of Arctic ice, creating new sea routes and opening up new areas such as Greenland for resource exploitation,” he said. “China is investing huge sums in Africa to access resources vital to the energy transition, such as copper and lithium, while Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Global powers are using a range of means to control resources, and there’s a massive technology trade battle that requires access to key resources.”
The report highlights how confrontation between countries threatens supply chains and broader global economic stability, while technological acceleration and environmental decline are also creating “knock-on effects”.
When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of experts surveyed for the research expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade, up four percentage points from last year.
Adverse outcomes of AI is the risk with the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year forecast, reflecting anxiety about the implications for labour markets, societies and security.
Inequality is seventh in the two- and 10-year outlooks, and was also selected as the most interconnected risk for a second consecutive year – fuelling other risks as social mobility falters – with economic downturn ranked the second-most interconnected risk, underlying concerns about cost-of-living pressures.
Indeed, economic downturn and inflation risks have both surged eight positions in the two-year outlook, to 11th and 21st, respectively. The researchers said that mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles amid geoeconomic tensions “could trigger a new phase of volatility”.
Half of those surveyed anticipate a “turbulent or stormy world” over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40% expect it to be unsettled at the very least, while just 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm.
The WEF stressed that “none of these risks are a foregone conclusion”, although president Børge Brende conceded that “a new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest”.
The report is at www.bit.ly/wef26-report
Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
