In a rapid study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), the scientists also explain how the south-east of England’s 32°C heatwave has been around 10 times more likely than without humans warming the planet.
Three days of temperatures above 28°C for the region in June are expected once every five years, but would have occurred only around once every 50 years without climate change, according to the findings.
Older people are at the highest risk of death, as well as those with heart issues, respiratory illnesses and conditions such as diabetes, with early-summer heatwaves more deadly because people are less acclimatised to the warmer conditions.
WWA co-founder, Dr Friederike Otto, who was recently interviewed for Transform magazine, said it was “totally insane” that political leaders in the UK are “trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels”.
She continued: “We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave – burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases. The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerous heatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.”
WWA uses weather observations and computer modelling to quantify how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather, but this is only the second time it has analysed an event as forecasted, rather than one that has just happened.
It found that this week’s heatwave was made approximately 2-4°C more intense as a result of the overall warming of the planet, and warned that wildfires are an “emerging risk” in UK summers as conditions become more like southern Europe.
The researchers urged people to be careful about barbecues, cigarettes and glass, which can all ignite fires in the hot weather. They also called for people to ensure they drink enough water and encourage elderly relatives to do the same, keep windows and curtains closed during the day, and consider going to cooler public buildings such as museums to protect against the heat.
Dr Ben Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said that the heatwave is “another reminder that our planet has already heated to a dangerous level”.
“We’re at 1.3°C today, but heading for around 3°C this century,” he continued. “With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves.
“That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, tougher work conditions and poorer air quality.”
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Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
