That is according to the latest Climate Action Tracker (CAT) update, released today at COP30, which is based on nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that have been submitted so far, and real-world actions by governments.
When also considering pledges and targets, the researchers project 2.2°C of warming, which is slightly worse than previously forecast due to the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement next year.
Under the most optimistic scenario where all announced targets are implemented fully, global temperatures are still projected to rise 1.9°C by the end of this century.
Climate Analytics, which runs the CAT project, said that “almost none” of the 40 governments it analysed have updated their 2030 NDC targets, nor have they set out the kind of action in their new 2035 targets that would change the warming outlook.
“The world is running out of time to avoid a dangerous overshoot of the 1.5°C limit,” said CEO Bill Hare. “Delayed action has already led to higher cumulative emissions, and new evidence suggests the climate system may be more sensitive than previously thought.
“Without rapid, deep emissions cuts – over 50% by 2030 – overshooting 1.5°C becomes ever more likely, with severe consequences for people and ecosystems.”
Back in 2015, CAT’s assessment of existing policies showed that the world was on track for around 3.6°C of warming by 2100, with the latest projections showing that this has been reduced by roughly 1°C.
However, the researchers warned that progress has “flattened off” just when visible signs of dangerous climate change have emerged vividly around the planet.
Under current NDCs and long-term targets, emissions are projected to reach 53-57 GtCO2e in 2030, and 48-52 GtCO2e in 2035 – far above levels consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, which would require emissions to fall to 27 GtCO2e by 2030, and 21 GtCO2e by 2035.
The researchers said “it’s time to recognise what the Paris Agreement has set in motion, appreciate the progress it has driven so far, and stand up for it as the backbone of the world’s response to climate change”.
“The Paris Agreement has rewritten the rules of global climate action – sparking investment, innovation, and reforms that would simply not have happened without it,” said Prof Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner organisation. “But governments need to speed up the pace now.
“Although emissions have risen, the exponential pace of the renewable energy expansion allows us to now reduce emissions much faster than previously thought.
“Governments can strengthen or overachieve 2030 targets, implement robust policies, and ensure transparency and accountability to deliver on the Paris Agreement promise and safeguard a sustainable future.”
Image credit: Shutterstock
Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of ISEP’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for ISEP members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
