ISEP recently brought together members and experts for a roundtable discussion with Dr Emily Nurse, Head of Net Zero at the Climate Change Committee (CCC). Dr Nurse provided an overview of the CCC’s view on sector-specific priorities for the UK’s next Carbon Budget, which was followed by a discussion among ISEP members. In this short blog, Asim Ali, ISEP's Senior Public Affairs Officer, reflects on some of the key talking points.
The CCC’s analysis shows that carbon budgets are not only a central tool for reducing emissions, they also offer businesses valuable certainty to plan and invest for the long term. While progress is being made in many areas, the speed of decarbonisation differs across sectors, with some major challenges ahead.
Sector pathways to 2050
By 2050, most sectors are expected to reach near-zero emissions, but aviation and agriculture are likely to remain significant sources. Aviation has already overtaken electricity supply as a major emitter and is projected to become the single largest emitting sector by 2040.
Surface transport currently accounts for roughly a quarter of UK emissions, followed by residential buildings. Around 60% of future emissions reductions are expected to come from electrifying key technologies. This will require a doubling of electricity demand by 2050, even as overall energy use falls, and a power system built on a backbone of solar, nuclear, and hydrogen.
Heating, energy costs, and green skills
The transition to low-carbon heat is a particular pressure point. Only 1% of UK homes currently have a heat pump, far behind other European nations. CCC modelling suggests this must rise to around 50% by 2040. High electricity prices, and a continued dependence on gas were identified as key barriers.
Reducing electricity costs, providing stronger incentives for rural households, and investing in the skills needed for large-scale heat pump installation and home retrofits will be vital to meeting targets.
Transport transition
In transport, the falling premium for electric vehicles is encouraging, but barriers remain. Participants highlighted concerns over range, charging times, and the slow rollout of rapid charging infrastructure. Heavy goods vehicles and electric trucks are less prevalent in the UK compared to other European countries, pointing to a need for targeted incentives and infrastructure upgrades.
Carbon removals and credibility
Carbon removals, including carbon capture and storage, will be essential to meeting net zero. While progress is underway, delays and a lack of business model clarity remain. Aviation, as a high and growing source of emissions, will likely need to contribute financially to scaling carbon removal technologies.
The group also discussed the importance of robust standards for tracking imported emissions and verifying offsetting claims. Without these, there is a risk of “greenwashing,” with companies making UK claims for actions delivered overseas.
The next Carbon Budget offers a critical opportunity to lock in progress across electrification, heating, transport, and carbon removals. Achieving this will require coordinated policy certainty, targeted investment, and strong industry engagement — ensuring environmental ambition goes hand-in-hand with economic opportunity.
Asim joined ISEP in May 2022 as a Senior Public Affairs Officer. Prior to joining ISEP, Asim worked in a variety of roles for three Members of Parliament and interned for the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. He also holds an MA in Human Rights, Globalisation & Justice
