14 January 2026
The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, the 21st edition of this annual report was released today, drawing on insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide, the report explores risks in the current or immediate term (in 2026), the short-to-medium term (to 2028) and in the long term (to 2036).
In the immediate term, 'geoeconomic confrontation' is top of mind for respondents and was selected as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026, followed by 'state-based armed conflict'. While in the longer term environmental risks dominate the concerns of experts.
ISEP deputy CEO Martin Baxter said: “Environment and sustainability risks in the short and medium-term are central to the Global Risks Report released today by the World Economic Forum.
“Extreme weather, biodiversity loss & ecosystem collapse, and critical changes to earth systems remain the top three risks on a ten-year horizon. However, on a shorter two-year outlook, geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis according to over 1,200 experts across the world – and even that has environment and sustainability drivers.
“Moving from 9th to 1st in the rankings, the risk of geoeconomic confrontation stems from growing geopolitical rivalries, heightened protectionism, unstable supply chains and diminishing transparency – however, in the background climate change and natural resources are the drivers.
“Climate change is driving the melting of arctic ice, creating new sea routes and opening up new areas such as Greenland for resource exploitation. China is investing massive sums in Africa to access resources vital to the energy transition, such as copper and lithium, while Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
“Global powers are using a range of means to control resources and there's a massive technology trade battle that requires access to key resources – all linked to the environment and sustainability.”
